Fontolva haladó

A nap kérdése

Írta: Papp Zoltán Miklós, Borbás Barnabás

Pedig nem fűlik a fogunk egyetérteni Helmeczy Lászlóval vagy az elempés hadakkal, mégis a választás célvonala előtt nem sokkal ehelyütt is fontosnak tartjuk felhívni a figyelmet arra a nyilvánvaló tényre, hogy a kopogtatócédulás jelöltállítási rendszer nem csak bonyolult, nehézkes és merev, de kódolja visszaélések és csalások sorozatát. Nem kevesebb, mint öt választási időszak tanulsága ez, a hatodiknak pedig éppen napjait éljük.

Nemrég lezárult a 2010-es választások egyik legfontosabb előkészítő szakaszát jelentő ajánlószelvény-gyűjtés; termékeny időszak volt, gyors internetes számolással harmincnál több országos vagy lokális botrányt számoltunk össze, melyek egyúttal szép keresztmetszetét adják mind a hatályos BTK előfordulható részeinek, mind a teológiai értelemben vett (fő)bűnöknek (incl. lopás, vesztegetés, hamisítás, hazugság/megtévesztés, üzérkedés, visszaélés - paráznaságra ugyan még nem láttunk kopogtatócédulás variációt, de már nagyon várjuk). Ha bárkinek elkerülte volna a figyelmét akár egy hír is, emlékeztetőül, ill. szemléltetésnek íme 14 eset:

Pénzért szerzett ajánlószelvényeket a soproni MDF-jelölt? [MNO]

A Jobbiknak dolgoznak a pécsi álfideszesek? [FN]

Budaházynak nincs 750 érvényes ajánlószelvénye [FN]

Csalással vádolják az LMP-s Schiffer Andrást [Index]

Ajánlószelvény étkezési utalványokért? [Mr1]

Lebuktak az álfideszes ajánlószelvény-gyűjtők [MNO]

LMP-s feljelentéssorozat kopogtatócédula-ügyben [FN]

Lopják az MSZP és az MDF kopogtatócéduláit Fejérben [Hírszerő]

Tömegesen éltek vissza a Fidesz nevével [Hírszerző]

Cigány párt adott át kopogtatócédulákat Seres Máriának? [Mandiner]

Több mint 20 érvénytelent találtak Szabadai Viktor kopogtatócédulái között [HírTv]

Munkaidőben, munkahelyen gyűjtött ajánlószelvényeket Debreczeni József [origo]

Postaládákat törtek föl a belvárosban [jozsefvaros.hu]

Lefoglalták egy MDF-es képviselő kopogtatócéduláit [Index]

Az ajánlószelvényes rendszer legfőbb aggályai

1. Adatokkal való visszaélés.
A legjobban hangoztatott kérdés, amelyre az adatvédelmi biztosnak is volt egy-két szava. A pártoknak elvileg kötelező megsemmisíteni a begyűjtött cédulákat, de a tapasztalat azt mutatja, hogy ha ez meg is történik, azok adatait belső használatra még tárolják, ami - valljuk be - igazi aranybánya a politikai marketingeseknek és kampánystratégáknak: egy jól képzett közvélemény kutató sem tudná ilyen pengeélesen belőni egy párt potenciális szavazóbázisát. Az ajánlószelvényen pedig a legfőbb demográfiai adatok egytől egyig szerepelnek.

2. Szenvedő kis/új pártok.
Sokan, sok helyen elmondták már, hogy a jelenlegi választási rendszer a nagy pártoknak kedvez. Másképpen megfogalmazva erősen szelektálja a kisebb támogatottságú politikai tömörüléseket. Noha ízlés dolga, hogy jobban szeretnénk-e a kétpárti vagy pl. öt- hatpárti parlamenti üléseket látni, mi úgy vagyunk vele, hogy mindenképpen szerencsésebb állapotú társadalmat jelez egy többpárti, és a politikai törésvonalakat jobban tükröző parlament. Márpedig jelöltenként 750 szelvényt összegyűjteni kisebb (netán új) pártnak baromi nehéz, nem is beszélve arról, hogy ez milyen költségessé is válhat, már csak azért is mert a szelvények gyűjtése is anyagi forrásokhoz kötött. És arról se feledkezzünk meg, hogy nem csak a kis pártok, de a regionális (és tegyük fel: erős) pártok politikai érvényesülését is erősen korlátozza ez a rendszer.

3. Hamisítás.
Ősi törvény, hogy ami írva, vagy nyomtatva van, azt hamisítani is lehet, és fogják is. Jobb tehát minimalizálni a csalás lehetőségét. Nem egyedi eset, hogy a gyűjtés operatív vezetője azt ajánlja, hogy lopják ki a postaládákból az ajánlószelvényeket, amiket majd kitöltenek a szorgos kezek. Az igazsághoz hozzátarozik, hogy bajban volt, aki idén kopogtatócédulák előállítására adta a fejét, ugyanis legalább 2-3 féle biztonsági jellel látták el, amin már a jó öreg fotosop sem segít.

4. Vásárolni is lehet.
Egy-egy kopogtatócédula roppant értékessé tud válni, ha egy pártnak már nem sok kell, de a legtöbbet már leszüretelték a riválisok. A kereslet-kínálat törvénye a kopogtatócédulák világát sem hagyja érintetlenül. A begyűjtési időszakban nem egyszer röppentek föl hírek 2-3 ezer forintért gazdát cserélő ajánlószelvényekről, megkent nyugdíjasokról, kamu pártaktivistákról.

5. Hibalehetőségek.
Nem egyedi eset, szinte mindannyiunkkal előfordult már, hogy elírtuk a nevünket egy űrlapon. Amikor a kopogtatókat gyűjtő aktivista becsönget két gyereketetés vagy talk-show között, ez a kockázat még fokozottabban fennáll. Akár a személyi szám elírása vagy olvashatatlanága érvénytelenné tehet egy kopogtatócédulát, ami a kis pártoknál - és Budaházy Györgynél - létkérdéssé válhat.

6. Egyszerűen pénzkidobás.
Kinyomtatni, összeszedni, beadni, leellenőrizni, összeszámolni.
Ezek bizony sok ember munkáját igénylő, drága manőverek országos szinten.

Nem nehéz belátni, hogy ez a rendszer a mutyik sűrű aljnövényzetű erdeibe inkább befele visz minket, nem kifelé onnan. Nyilván 1994-ben sem voltak becsületesebbek a cédulagyűjtők koordinátorai, azonban hála az egyre kisebb digitális kameráknak, az egyre sűrűbb információs hálónak, és az egyre több médiumnak, egy-egy nyilvánvaló visszaélést órákon belül feldob a blogszféra és a hírportálok, este pedig Szellő Pista szuggerálja belénk.

A kopogtatócédulázással kapcsolatos aggályok persze itt még nem érnek véget, míg az életben az erőseb, itt a gyorsabb kutya sikeres. Ehhez jön még a tényező, ami a választóti magatartással is kapcsolatos, mégpedig hogy az esélytelenekre, pontosabban az esélyteleknek beállítottakra nem szívesen adunk se szavazatot se ajánlást, így fordulhatott elő az a torz eredmény hogy egyik oldalon milliókban a másikon pár százban mérhetőek az ajánlások ami, igen jót tesz egy párt „márkaértékének”, de ezzel párhuzamosan csorbul az egyenlőség elve.

Lehetséges alternatíva a kauciós rendszer

Ausztriában, Csehországban vagy Szlovákiában nem küzdenek az ajánlószelvényes szisztéma árnyoldalaival. Sok más országhoz hasonlóan náluk is pénzbiztosíték, vagyis kaució letételével lehet jelöltet állítani. Ennek mértéke országonként igen változó. Nagy Britanniában például 500 GBP (~150 000 HUF), Görögországban 146 EUR (~39 000 HUF), Ausztriában viszont 435 EUR (~115 000 HUF). A pénz visszatérítéséhez 2, 5, néhol 6 százalékos minimumküszöböt kell elérni a jelöltnek, függetlenül az őt indító szervezet országos eredményétől. (Bár a már említett Görögországban és Ausztriában nem térítenek vissza semmit.)

A példák alapján érezhető, hogy egy magát komolyan vevő jelölt elé nem támaszt megugorhatatlan pénzügyi akadályt ez a pénzbiztosíték, ugyanakkor valamennyire szűri a kalandorokat és a kamu figurákat - bár a kauciós rendszer esetleges magyarországi bevezetésével kapcsolatban nyilván a legkisebb horderejű kérdés annak mértéke (ez kevés előtanulmányozás után nagyjából belőhető optimális szintre). Az új rendszerhez azonban, a választási rendszer számos pontja esne át változtatásokon. Többek között a listaállítás is ilyen. A jelenlegi szisztémában a választás minden eleme szorosan összefügg, illetve egymásból következik. Az egyik út, hogy a 750 cédulát egyszerűen behelyettesítik egy meghatározott összegre, és minden egyéb marad a régiben. Tőkeerős, de nem feltétlenül gazdag pártoknak valószínűleg nem lenne nehéz átugrani ezt a lécet, aminek következtében szerintünk az országos listaállítás könnyebben vehető akadály lenne, talán olyan könnyű, hogy el lehetne törölni vagy legalábbis egyszerűsíteni a bonyolult listaállítási szabályokat. Azonban fontos leszögezni, hogy egy választási rendszer, vagyis a jogi keret és a választói magatartás kölcsönhatása nem jelezhető előre bizonyosan, és csak idővel derül ki, hogy mennyire működőképes, illetve mennyire méltányos. Jó modelleket adaptálni kell, nem koppintani, és az is fontos alapelv, hogy gyökeres változásokat eszközölni egy lépésben nem túl szerencsés.

A kauciós rendszer megengedni, hogy letisztultabb listaállítási procedúrát dolgozzanak ki, amely például a regionális pártok érvényesülésének is teret adna.

Ha minden marad úgy, ahogy most van, sajnos nem sok esély van a helyzet javulására, mivel az ajánlással kapcsolatos feltételeket a választási törvény szabályozza, amely megváltoztatásához 2/3-os többség szükséges, az a párt pedig, amelyik legnagyobb eséllyel lépheti át a 66,7 százalékos mandátumarányt, éppen a legnagyobb haszonélvezője a kopogtatócédulás rendszernek.

 

Mindezek után hívjuk a Kedves Olvasót, tekintsünk meg értő szemekkel egy kopogtatócédulás képpoént:

Az csontos rajz négymadár egyik klasszikusának részlete. A képpoént köszönjük a viharabiliben blognak.

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